What if Bernie Sanders Starts Winning?

There have been a lot of pretty hostile posts — mostly from 538 — arguing that Bernie Sanders has no chance, has no momentum, and that we should probably pay no attention to him. I understand this view — it’s the default view political scientists are taught to adopt. What is most likely to happen is what will probably happen; it’s a sort of Occam’s razor.

That said, what will the folks at 538 do if (a) Sanders starts rising in the polls, or (b) he wins some caucuses or primaries? How will they explain someone with “no chance” suddenly developing one? Primaries and caucuses are fickle, especially since national polls don’t really matter here — state-level polls do, and a poll out today has Sanders pretty high in New Hampshire (if still low elsewhere).

Clinton will probably still get the nomination, but relying on national popularity is how Hillary Clinton lost the nomination in 2008. I understand the popular press loves the horse race, and perhaps the 538 folks are trying to counterbalance that by downplaying it — but there must be a happier medium. These things can change, especially in primaries. Flatly stating that someone has no chance, and that we should ignore them, seems pretty risky, because whoever says it will look silly if that person wins.